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If Bernstein’s $10 trillion prediction market turnover forecast is realized or exceeded, it’d likely prove significant in revenue terms because the research firm previously estimated that $1 trillion in yearly activity could generate as much as $10.8 billion in revenue for operators.

As has been widely documented, sports event contracts are currently the lifeblood of the prediction market industry, but Bernstein notes that won’t be the case on a permanent basis. In fact, the research firm estimates that sports derivatives’ share of industry volume will decline to 35% in 2035, indicating that the aforementioned volume increase will be led by other categories.

The research firm estimates that by 2035, financial derivatives, including event contracts linked to commodities, cryptocurrencies and stocks, will account for 49% of turnover on yes/no exchanges, topping sports to become the largest volume driver. The research firm sees event contracts tied to key performance indicators (KPIs) leading the charge.

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He was also fined $71,356.

Kalshi’s compliance department uncovered a series of large trades made by Santos throughout February 2026 involving contracts that would pay out based on whether he attended the State of the Union address on 24 February. 

The exchange reported that Santos then issued public statements regarding his attendance, some deemed false or misleading, that were deliberately aimed at influencing the price of “Yes” or “No” contracts connected to his attendance. 

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Before I sign off, to the staff writers, past and present; Steven Stradbroke, Peter Amsel, Jamie Hinks, John Blaise, Erik Gibbs, Lee Davy, Kirby Garlitos, Jasmine Solana, Leonard Postrado, Paul Seaton, Dan Taylor, Derek Tonin, Criz Hombrebueno, Ed Drake, Lee Bell, Rafi Farber, Daniel Gardner, Paul How, Admir Aljic, Anton Fabico, Mike O’Donnell, Jason Kirk, and Vince Martin, and our on-camera hosts Becky Liggero-Fontana, Dana Workman, Angelia Ong, Ed Pownall, Stephanie Tower and Tatjana Pasalic, to our excellent productions team Patrick Visenio, Jerome Guidotti, Rob Peacock, Ian Matteo, Glenn Ala, Chris Roxas, Geoff Salorio, Yancy Uy, Carol Tan, Evette Borromeo, Jeks Inanuran, Janus Martinez, Giselle Ordinario, Joseph Cataan, Sandy Ventosa, Carlos Dittborn, Mani Singh, Roland Naidoo.

And to all of the people behind the scenes Giron Perez, Joey Bote, Sid Isidro, Roger Castro, Tristan Villagracia, Jeremy Beltran, Ednelyn Agulto-Manalo, Jeh Almazan, Ian Ignacio, Red Bargan, Kimmy Maclang, Xeirus Sta. Ana, Lea Nicolle Luat, Catherine Resurreccion, Alexandre Esguerra, Jayson Pimentel, Samori Joseph, Cindy Padilla, Amanda Lopez, Rogelio Gabiano, Aries Hegina, Fawn Labrie, Anthony Dohm, Adrian Eden, Paolo Ramos, Emily Haruko Leeb, Mani Chagtai, Brad Lancaster, Carl Rivera, Alfredo Abaroa, Shannon M, Aphol Angeles, Vine and Zen Alvarez, Frey Sotelo, Daves Biag, Idn Aguliar, Angela Alano, Jeremy Yap and George F.

I thank you from the bottom of my heart. I hope you enjoyed it as much I enjoyed working with you.